Who can believe that in just one month Americans will choose between John Gramps McCain and Barack Arugula Obama for president? On the eve of this important election, here are some things to watch for during the remainder of the campaign:
THE ECONOMY ATE MY HOMEWORK
By almost all indicators, America's economy is in crisis. This has helped Barack Obama take a solid lead over McCain. With the passage of the "baliout" in congress, will the economy seem to improve? Any continued deterioration, or the spreading of this meltdown from the markets to other economic sectors (i.e. "the real economy") will almost certainly ensure an Obama victory. For now, the economic clusterfunk seems to be in check, but we can't say anything further.
MCCAIN'S FOCUS
Will McCain continue to conduct his campaign mostly on substance? Sticking to the issues may be a losing strategy for McCain, since more Americans side with Obama than McCain on key points. The McCain camp may take the campaign in a more personal direction. Expect to hear much more about Reverend Wright, Obama's 'elitism,' etc. in the coming month.
SARAH PALIN?
With her better-than-expected performance at the veep debate, Sarah Palin has stopped the bleeding incurred from her embarrasing interviews with Katy Couric, but she isn't out of the shithouse yet. Palin is both uninformed and outspoken, which leaves for a high probability that she'll say something stupid in the coming month, especially when her guard is down. She is a quick learner, but seems constantly on the verge of verbal blunders. Keep your ears open.
ELECTORAL MAP
John McCain withdrew his campaign from Michigan this week, ceding the state to Obama. Electorally speaking, a McCain victory without Michigan seems very difficult. Basically, he'll need to pick up several states that are currently polling towards Obama, including Florida and Ohio. There are many things in many states that will need to go right this month for McCain to win.
MCCAIN THE VOLATILE
McCain has proved himself to be very volatile this month. Of course, we already knew that, but he really stepped it up with his varied extreme actions the week of the credit meltdown. McCain is like the guy at the party doing naked kegstands for attention; you never know what to expect. If he continues to slip in the polls, I predict he'll do something crazy to try to turn his campagin around. Maybe he'll say Bush betrayed our country, or propose a radical national envoronmental program. Don't expect the same boring slide downward to continue.
ABOVE THE GUTTER
For the most part, the dirtier, lower punches have stayed out of the mainstream campaign thus far. I think October could be a month where we see racism and bigotry make a more prounounced appearance in the race to the whitehouse. People calling Barack a Muslim, etc. could flare up, especially if neo-cons feel a loss is imminent.
BRADLEY EFFECT?
The former black mayor of Los Angeles, Tom Bradley, famously lost the 1982 governor's race in California despite being comfortably ahead in public polls, leading many observers to deduce that people understate their biases against minority candidates when polled. This "Bradley Effect" may have already been at play during the primary race, but what effect, if any, it will have in the general eletion is unknown.
THE XXX FACTOR
A terrorist attack, the death of a candidate's family member. These things are unpredictable and can alter the entire race. Still a month left of uncertainty.
AND THE HEADLINE IS
What will be the preeminent issue in this final month and how will it benefit either candidate? Likely, it will not continue to be the economy. How the public sphere, largely defined by the media, identifies these two men in realtion to current events and the lives of "ordinary Americans" will decide the race. What will be the headline in October, and what will it be on Nov. 5?
