Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Will Clinton quit Tomorrow?


Late tonight, here is what we know after the final Indiana and North Carolina primary results.

STANDINGS

*Hilary Clinton can no longer win the popular vote, with or without Florida/ Michigan.
*Hilary Clinton will no longer win the most delegates.
*Hilary can no longer win the most number of states.

RESULTS

*Barack Obama won North Carolina by 14 points
*Hilary Clinton won Indiana by 1.5 points**

**Exit polling revealed 11% of Clinton voters in Indiana's open primary were "hardcore Republicans" (i.e. Conservatives who will not vote Democrat in the general election. Rush Limbaugh and others have encouraged Republicans to vote for Clinton in order to prolong the Dem. primaries.)

SO???

So even if Hilary wins her friendly states of West Virginia and Kentucky in the next few weeks, Obama should sweep the three final states of South Dakota, Montana, and Oregon. In other words, Clinton's standing on July 3 will be the same or worse than it is today. There is a special meeting scheduled for May 31 concerning the unseated Florida/ Michigan delegates but it's unlikely any solution could push Clinton into the delegate lead.

TO BOOT

To boot, expect Obama to roll out as many as fifteen new superdelegates in the next two days, racking up the pressure on Clinton to bow out.

ALSO: Aides say Clinton's campaign is out of money, again, and this time it will be very difficult to raise more funds.

CONCLUSION

Barack Obama is the Democratic Nominee; Clinton may bow out as early as tomorrow (she has canceled all her morning television appearances). If not then, then presumably sometime soon. Of course, we all know the Clintons are resilient streetfighters so they may stick around for a while.

But at this point she is out of options.

NEXT STEP??

Obama Vs. Marshmallow Man.

I am curious to see how many points of a boost Obama will get exactly three weeks after Hilary drops out. Current Gallup Tracking: McCain 46%, Obama 45%.

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