NO MARRIAGE FOR YOU

PROP 8 PROTEST, SF CITY HALL

As expected, the California Supreme Court today upheld the validity of Proposition 8, the November  ballot initiative that made gay marriage illegal in California. At the same time, they kept valid the 18,000 gay marriages performed prior to November, which would seem to set up a constitutional contradiction, but more on that later.

For supporters of gay rights, the logical question is: What now?

The most likely next step will be a counter initiative in the year 2010. Civil rights groups began fundraising for this as-yet-hypothetical proposition even before today's ruling. Indeed, it would seem to be the most logical step- but in order for it succeed many things would have change from the last fight, and failing yet again would be an unthinkable blow to the movement.

A few alternatives to the 2010 proposition could include.

CLASS ACTION DISCRIMINATION

The California constitution guarentees equal protection under the law. That the 2008 gay marriages are valid and subsequent gay marriages aren't may lay grounds for a discrimination lawsuit. In other words, the state is discriminating not against gays but among gays.

JUDGEMENT IN FEDERAL COURT

Actually, this has already begun, as of a few hours ago. Litigators today filed suit in U.S. District Court, in Los Angeles, on behalf of two gay California couples, arguing that Proposition 8 violates the U.S. constitution's equal protection clause. The suit seeks an imitate injunction against Prop 8 and would restore gay marriage in California. This has a good chance of ending up before the U.S. Supreme Court, which is usually split 5-4 against expanding gay rights.

Of course, a national policy must eventually be forged that would be comparable in scope to the 1964 Civil Rights Acts. Having different states with different standards for marriage and having the civil rights of Americans constantly in flux is not a sustainable reality. The time may be ripe for Californian gay marriage, but when will it be for national gay marriage? None of the conservative supreme court justices are forecast to die within the next few years, so is it not time?

TAKING IT TO THE STREETS

For now, it seems, the surest bet to gay marriage will be another proposition here in California, in 2010. That gives supporters just 18 months to assemble, fundraise, organize, inform, convince, and pass an initiative.

Success will depend on vast differences in approach from the Proposition 8 fight, namely in reaching voters beyond the affluent, white, urban Californians who support gay marriage. In particular, much more work needs to be done in the latino and black communities. This is something organizers seem keenly aware of, as they today announced the expansion of offices into "new communities" in California.

The truth is that one year may not be enough time to convince people who have deep-seeded religious and cultural sentiments against gays. So it may come down to strategy.

People need to remember that the ethnic minorities who voted in huge numbers for Obama and against gay marriage in 2008 will represent a lower portion of the voting electorate in 2010, a non-presidential election. There are also the republicans who won't show up on the off-year, as California doesn't elect conservative senators and they aren't energized by a presidential race. Of course, I want everyone to vote- but the likelihood that many people won't could be a good thing for gay marriage.

2010 might be the perfect year to run such a campaign.

We'll see. Until then, I'll be here in the peanut gallery, watching and waiting.